So Much NVIDIA FOMO

Anyone still think we're in an AI bubble?

Hey there, I’m Zach Abramowitz and I’m legally disrupted. Today’s disruption comes with a dose of humble pie and a webinar you don’t want to miss. You can see more about that webinar here:

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/zachabramowitz_generativeai-ai-activity-7165993077881356288-HfJL

Now, let’s talk about how I totally missed on NVIDIA.

I’m not shy when it comes to flexing on predictions, but today I stand before you humbled by the several missed opportunities I had to invest in NVIDIA since last January when the company popped up on my radar.

Since NVIDIA announced its most recent earnings, I’ve been kicking myself, just as I did after the last earnings call before and the one before that.

Of all people, I should have known NVIDIA would continue to wildly exceed expectations. After all, I’ve been shouting from the rooftops since ChatGPT launched that LLMs were no fire drill. For the last year I’ve been telling lawyers at conferences, webinars, private briefings and right here in this newsletter that the launch of ChatGPT signaled a major leap forward in AI capability and adoption. Where others tempered their expectations and cautioned others to “stay reasonable” and “not buy they hype,” I told you to lean in, and remember me when you were doing it! I also told you that the progress was going to be exponential, such that humans weren’t capable of processing how quickly things were going to progress. As if that weren’t enough, I argued that AI was propping up the US economy (literally the thing everyone is now saying about NVIDIA). I argued right here on ZAILD that “AI was the boost the market needed to stave off economic uncertainty.” I pride myself on putting my money where my mouth is and yet, I didn’t invest in the most obvious opportunity.

How did I start following NVIDIA in the first place? I had driven by NVIDIA’s buildings in Northern Israel several times, but I had never given the company much thought. But, shortly after the launch of ChatGPT, my partner Avshie was persuading me why ChatGPT was not just more hype. I wondered, like the traditional Passover song, “Why is this AI different from all other the AIs?” Why didn’t this AI exist until now and what was the deal with the sudden breakthrough? Avshie explained to me that, among other things, this new transformer architecture was capable of running a massive number of parallel processes, which could only be done with GPUs, designed by NVIDIA, originally for video games. Avshie then predicted that with the launch of ChatGPT there was likely going to be a compute shortage, and he pointed out that NVIDIA was already up 38%. Looking back now, it’s so clear to me that if I had real conviction about AI, the best way to monetize that conviction (besides spending all of our company’s resources learning about AI, which we’ve certainly done) would be to invest in NVIDIA. I have had no success in picking stocks, and this is NOT advice, but even now, with the stock at an all-time high, my feeling is that NVIDIA is still a great investment. Here’s why: we are in the midst of a true paradigm shift that, by nature of its exponential progress, is going to continue to surprise our very human brains. Now, maybe the rest of the market wakes up to the reality of exponential progress the same time that I do, but my guess is that if I don’t buy NVIDIA now, I’m going to continue to bathe in in the shame of my own FOMO.

Speaking of FOMO, make sure not to miss out (how do you like that segue?) on this week’s webinar I’m doing along with Dan Hauck and Scott Kelly from NetDocuments. I’m going to explain what I’ve been talking about in private briefings, namely, how to understand and explain to others the difference between legacy AI and GenAI. And then Dan and Scott are going to show you some shiny, award-winning AI that they’re building over at NetDocuments. If you’re feeling behind on AI, this webinar will help you cut to the front of the line. You’re not going to want to miss it. To register for the webinar, use this link: https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_11GR0u-2RNC-rURLyTMGMw

Stay disrupted everyone!